Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and
rapidly growing threat. Developing a long-term strategic plan for the conservation of coral reefs is urgently needed yet is complicated by significant uncertainty associ-
ated with climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems. We use Modern PortfolioTheory to identify coral reef locations globally that, in the absence of other impacts,
are likely to have a heightened chance of surviving projected climate changes rela-tive to other reefs. Long-term planning that is robust to uncertainty in future condi-
tions provides an objective and transparent framework for guiding conservation action and strategic investment. These locations constitute important opportunities for novel
conservation investments to secure less vulnerable yet well-connected coral reefs that may, in turn, help to repopulate degraded areas in the event that the climate has sta-
bilized.
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