We rely on expert predictions to guide conservation, but even experts have biases and blind spots

When faced with uncertainty, we often look for predictions by experts: from election result forecasts, to the likely outcomes of medical treatment. In nature conservation, we turn to expert opinion to assess extinction risk, or predict the long-term responses of plant species to fire management. But how reliable are these predictions? There's a well known saying, "Prediction is difficult, particularly when it involves the future."

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